Calibration and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model using Genetic Algorithms and Bayesian Model Averaging   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Xuesong Zhang  Raghavan Srinivasan  David Bosch 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,374(3-4):307-317

In this paper, the Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) were used to simultaneously conduct calibration and uncertainty analysis for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this combined method, several SWAT models with different structures are first selected; next GA is used to calibrate each model using observed streamflow data; finally, BMA is applied to combine the ensemble predictions and provide uncertainty interval estimation. This method was tested in two contrasting basins, the Little River Experimental Basin in Georgia, USA, and the Yellow River Headwater Basin in China. The results obtained in the two case studies show that this combined method can provide deterministic predictions better than or comparable to the best calibrated model using GA. The 66.7% and 90% uncertainty intervals estimated by this method were analyzed. The differences between the percentage of coverage of observations and the corresponding expected coverage percentage are within 10% for both calibration and validation periods in these two test basins. This combined methodology provides a practical and flexible tool to attain reliable deterministic simulation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT.  相似文献   

Application of GA in optimization of pore network models generated by multi-cellular growth algorithms     

Saeid Jamshidi  Ramin Bozorgmehry Boozarjomehry  Mahmoud Reza Pishvaie 《Advances in water resources》2009

In pore network modeling, the void space of a rock sample is represented at the microscopic scale by a network of pores connected by throats. Construction of a reasonable representation of the geometry and topology of the pore space will lead to a reliable prediction of the properties of porous media. Recently, the theory of multi-cellular growth (or L-systems) has been used as a flexible tool for generation of pore network models which do not require any special information such as 2D SEM or 3D pore space images. In general, the networks generated by this method are irregular pore network models which are inherently closer to the complicated nature of the porous media rather than regular lattice networks. In this approach, the construction process is controlled only by the production rules that govern the development process of the network. In this study, genetic algorithm has been used to obtain the optimum values of the uncertain parameters of these production rules to build an appropriate irregular lattice network capable of the prediction of both static and hydraulic information of the target porous medium.  相似文献   

变截面门式刚架稳定及地震反应研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

高轩能  黄文欢  李琨  徐小波 《地震工程学报》2008,30(2):193-200

变截面轻钢门式刚架为我国单层大跨度工业和仓储建筑的主要结构形式.本文简要回顾了国内外变截面轻钢门式刚架稳定和地震反应研究的概况,介绍了其稳定分析及稳定设计方法的新进展以及地震反应理论分析、实验研究和分析方法的新进展,指出了目前在稳定和动反应研究及工程应用中存在的问题.针对我国相关现行规范在变截面门式刚架稳定和抗震设计方面规定的不足和存在的缺陷,提出了在稳定、地震反应及极限承载能力的判定方法等方面的研究建议.  相似文献   

基于SOM和PSO的非监督地震相分析技术   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

张  郑晓东  李劲松  路交通  曹成寅  隋京坤 《地球物理学报》2015,58(9):3412-3423

地震相分析技术是储层预测的一种重要方法,可以用来描述有利沉积相带的分布规律.传统的地震相聚类分析方法对大数据的处理运算速度较慢,且容易陷入局部极小值,造成聚类分析的结构不准确.本文提出基于自组织神经网络(SOM)和粒子群优化方法(PSO)相结合的地震相分析技术,利用自组织神经网络能够保持原始地震数据的拓扑结构特性的特点,将大量冗余样本压缩为小样本数据,再通过粒子群的全局寻优能力改善K均值聚类的效果.理论模型和实际应用表明该方法能既有效实现数据压缩,又能提供较为准确的全局解,在地震相预测中兼顾计算效率和计算精度.  相似文献   

城市抗震设防标准的优化     

管友海  冯启民  王耀 《地震》2010,30(4):82-88

本文提出了城市抗震设防标准的优化方法, 该方法利用了建筑结构的易损性分析理论, 初始造价与设防烈度的关系, 地震设防时增加的经济投入与设防烈度的关系, 地震经济损失与设防烈度的关系等, 根据抗震设防增加的经济投入与地震经济损失之和最小的模型得到经济最优设防烈度, 并以按经济最优烈度设防时地震中的人员伤亡率小于社会可接受地震人员死亡率为限制条件, 求得最优设防烈度。  相似文献   

中小设计企业CAD软件平台正版化实施探讨     

华荣 《中国勘察设计》2005,(9):43-45

随着国际经济结构的大调整,国外软件平台开发商对我国设计企业知识产权的限制越来越多,我国勘察设计企业内部使用非正版软件支撑平台的风险越来越大。人们急于寻求一种可用较少的投资获得较高效益的软件平台。本文对具有我国自主知识产权的一些软件平台作了客观的归类分析,给中小设计企业软件平台正版化的具体实施提供参考。  相似文献   

数字化设计院的IT规划     

朱汉卫 《中国勘察设计》2005,(9):49-51

随着信息技术的快速发展,如何利用IT技术提高设计企业的生产和管理水平,增强企业竞争力益显重要。本文介绍了数字化设计院建设的有关内容,数字化设计院的体系架构、功能及规划。希望对设计企业的数字化建设有所参考。  相似文献   

A dynamic programming model for optimal planning of aquifer storage and recovery facility operations   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

V. Uddameri 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(6):953-962

Aquifer storage recovery (ASR) is an innovative technology with the potential to augment dwindling water resources in regions experiencing rapid growth and development. Planning and design of ASR systems requires quantifying how much water should be stored and appropriate times for storage and withdrawals within a planning period. A monthly scale planning model has been developed in this study to derive optimal (least cost) long-term policies for operating ASR systems and is solved using a recursive deterministic dynamic programming approach. The outputs of the model include annual costs of operation, the amount of water to be imported each month as well as the schedule for storage and extraction. A case study modeled after a proposed ASR system for Mustang Island and Padre Island service areas of the city of Corpus Christi is used to illustrate the utility of the developed model. The results indicate that for the assumed baseline demands, the ASR system is to be kept operational for a period of 4 months starting from May through August. Model sensitivity analysis indicated that increased seasonal shortages can be met using ASR with little additional costs. For the assumed cost structure, a 16% shortage increased the costs by 1.6%. However, the operation time of ASR increased from 4 to 8 months. The developed dynamic programming model is a useful tool to assess the feasibility of evaluating the use of ASR systems during regional-scale water resources planning endeavors.  相似文献   

长输管道勘测工作中的问题分析及对策     

沙俊飞  李从军 《现代测绘》2006,29(3):47-48

本文对通过对仪长管道线路测量勘察、水文地质、河流、冲沟穿跨越勘测存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的改进措施和建议,旨在加强对管道建设勘测阶段的管理,提高勘测水平,达到优化设计和投资的目的。  相似文献   

模糊评判在露天转地下矿山的矿房结构参数优化中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩现民  李晓  杜国栋 《工程地质学报》2006,14(5):654-660

模糊评判法能较好地解决方案选择的问题。本文针对石人沟铁矿露天转地下矿山过渡期开采期间,矿山地下开采带来的露天边坡、地下采场稳定性问题,通过数值模拟,得到地下第一中段开采时地下采场和边坡的应力、应变数值,并结合矿块的采切比、矿块回采率经济指标,运用模糊数学的方法,建立了考虑经济效益的稳定性模糊评判模型。通过合理确定评价指标的隶属度函数和利用二元排序法构造判断矩阵确定各评价指标的权重,对9种方案进行了综合评判,确定了最优方案,选出了合理的矿房结构参数,既可保证矿山的安全生产,又可保证矿山经济效益。  相似文献